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Jake Tonges

Jake Tonges Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Jake Tonges Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
  • Jake Tonges has been a more important option in his offense's pass attack this season (10.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (0.0%).
  • Since the start of last season, the porous Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been torched for a staggering 78.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • Jake Tonges has put up a puny 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 25th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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