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Jake Tonges

Jake Tonges Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Jake Tonges Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • In this game, Jake Tonges is expected by the model to land in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.2 targets.
  • Our trusted projections expect Jake Tonges to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass game in this week's contest (0.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.5% in games he has played).
  • After totaling 0.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Tonges has seen marked improvement this season, currently pacing 12.0 per game.
  • This year, the deficient Bears pass defense has been gouged for a massive 81.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Right now, the 8th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the 49ers.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Bears defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
  • Jake Tonges comes in as one of the weakest TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 2nd percentile.

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