My Account Log Out
 
 
Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +188 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +182.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is implied by the Cowboys being a -4-point underdog this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The Cowboys have been the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
  • The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last year, Jake Ferguson has posted big gains this year, now pacing 35.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects Jake Ferguson to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this game (20.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.8% in games he has played).
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Cowboys grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
  • This year, the imposing Broncos defense has allowed a paltry 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™