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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-230).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -196 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a staggering 63.5 per game on average).

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.

While Jake Ferguson has accounted for 13.6% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Dallas's offense near the goal line in this game at 21.6%.

After averaging 26.0 air yards per game last year, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 45.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Jets, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 28.2 per game) this year.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

This year, the porous New York Jets run defense has allowed a massive 1.00 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

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