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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-355).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -335 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -355.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.

While Jake Ferguson has earned 9.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Dallas's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 15.6%.

When it comes to air yards, Jake Ferguson ranks in the towering 84th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 29.0 per game.

Jake Ferguson's 33.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 83rd percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (45.7% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

With an atrocious rate of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Jake Ferguson places among the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in football among tight ends since the start of last season.

More Jake Ferguson Player Props

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