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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-225).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -225.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Cowboys have been the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • With an impressive 23.1% Red Zone Target% (92nd percentile) this year, Jake Ferguson places among the TEs with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • The Cowboys O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Chargers defense this year (65.0% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The opposing side have run for the 8th-most touchdowns in football (1.14 per game) against the Chargers defense this year.

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