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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -172 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.2% red zone pass rate.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 58.8 plays per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects Jake Ferguson to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this week's contest (18.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (26.0% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
  • This year, the strong Detroit Lions defense has yielded a paltry 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in football.

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