reorder

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -290 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

With a 60.6% rate of passing the ball in the red zone (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.

While Jake Ferguson has garnered 27.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Dallas's offense near the goal line this week at 19.4%.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.

This year, the imposing Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 0.27 passing touchdowns per game to opposing TEs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

More Jake Ferguson Player Props

Jake Ferguson TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13