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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cowboys this year (a colossal 58.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the model to run just 61.6 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • While Jake Ferguson has accounted for 25.4% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Dallas's pass game near the goal line in this contest at 18.6%.
  • The Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest clip in the league versus the Eagles defense this year (63.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the stout Eagles defense has yielded a puny 0.10 passing TDs per game to opposing TEs: the best rate in the NFL.

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