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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • With an impressive 26.9% Red Zone Target Share (95th percentile) this year, Jake Ferguson places as one of the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the league.
  • Jake Ferguson has totaled many more air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
  • Jake Ferguson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 31.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys ranks as the worst in football this year.
  • The Raiders pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.4%) versus TEs this year (69.4%).

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