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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Dallas Cowboys vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dallas Cowboys have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The Cardinals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.4 per game) this year.
  • In this week's game, Jake Ferguson is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.1 targets.
  • Jake Ferguson's 40.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 31.3.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 131.2 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.
  • The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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