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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -137.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is implied by the Cowboys being a -4-point underdog this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • In this game, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the projections to rank in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.6 targets.
  • Jake Ferguson has been a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense this season (23.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.6%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • When it comes to pass protection (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Cowboys grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
  • The Broncos pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) versus TEs this year (62.7%).
  • The Denver Broncos linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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