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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.

In this week's game, Jake Ferguson is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 96th percentile among tight ends with 6.7 targets.

Jake Ferguson has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 17.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.

With an exceptional 4.5 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Jake Ferguson has been among the top pass-game TEs in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.

In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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