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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • Jake Ferguson's 77.5% Route Participation% this season represents a noteworthy gain in his pass attack utilization over last season's 67.0% mark.
  • In this week's contest, Jake Ferguson is expected by the projections to position himself in the 91st percentile among TEs with 6.8 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • The Cowboys O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Los Angeles's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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