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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Dallas Cowboys vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 58.9 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • In this contest, Jake Ferguson is anticipated by the model to place in the 92nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.4 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.3 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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