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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-104/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -104.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cowboys this year (a colossal 58.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects Jake Ferguson to earn 6.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the model to run just 61.6 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The Eagles pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) versus tight ends this year (67.6%).

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