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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.1 per game on average).
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
  • This week, Jake Ferguson is anticipated by the projection model to find himself in the 98th percentile among tight ends with 7.6 targets.
  • Jake Ferguson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 31.3.
  • Jake Ferguson's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, notching 6.2 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 4.1 last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Cowboys, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Dallas Cowboys ranks as the worst in football this year.
  • The Raiders pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.4%) versus TEs this year (69.4%).

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