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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-169/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -169.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.

This week, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 87th percentile among tight ends with 5.3 targets.

With a sizeable 16.6% Target Share (87th percentile) last year, Jake Ferguson has been among the TEs with the most usage in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Dallas's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats too low) as a result of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.

The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Jake Ferguson has been one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a mere 71.2% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 25th percentile.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.6%) versus TEs last year (71.6%).

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