Jake Ferguson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jake Ferguson

NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-128/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Cowboys are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.53 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 44.5 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: most in the NFL.
In this game, Jake Ferguson is expected by the projections to finish in the 89th percentile among TEs with 5.5 targets.

Favors Under

Jake Ferguson's 72.8% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a a material reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 84.5% mark.
This year, the strong San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded a paltry 52.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the lowest rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.

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