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Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-105/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 40.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Dallas Cowboys have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.0 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.The Cardinals defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.4 per game) this year.In this week's game, Jake Ferguson is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.1 targets.Jake Ferguson has notched significantly more air yards this season (34.0 per game) than he did last season (26.0 per game).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.The leading projections forecast the Cowboys as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 131.2 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week.The Dallas Cowboys offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.Jake Ferguson checks in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging a measly 5.84 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 10th percentile.
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