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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+110/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -129.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cowboys to pass on 61.2% of their chances: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a massive 60.3 plays per game.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
  • Jake Ferguson's 77.5% Route Participation% this season represents a noteworthy gain in his pass attack utilization over last season's 67.0% mark.
  • In this week's contest, Jake Ferguson is expected by the projections to position himself in the 91st percentile among TEs with 6.8 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and approaches of each team, our trusted projections expect this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
  • The Cowboys O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Jake Ferguson rates as one of the least effective receivers in football among TEs, averaging a lowly 6.22 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 14th percentile.
  • Jake Ferguson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a noteable drop-off in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 5.2% figure.

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