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Jake Ferguson

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cowboys to pass on 62.9% of their plays: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The 10th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cowboys this year (a colossal 58.8 per game on average).
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The model projects Jake Ferguson to earn 6.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cowboys are projected by the model to run just 61.6 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Cowboys offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • With a subpar 5.9 adjusted yards per target (11th percentile) this year, Jake Ferguson rates as one of the bottom TE receiving threats in football.
  • Jake Ferguson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a meaningful regression in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 5.2% figure.
  • This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed a feeble 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

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