Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in football (74.6%) vs. tight ends this year (74.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line has given their QB 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.