Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Jake Ferguson

TE · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (79%) vs. tight ends this year (79.0%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown weak efficiency against TEs this year, giving up 8.15 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.