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Jake Browning

Jake Browning Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Jake Browning Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+650/-1050).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1050.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals will be rolling out backup QB Jake Browning in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Bengals are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects Jake Browning to be much more involved in his team's run game near the end zone in this game (13.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.7% in games he has played).
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Broncos defense has given up the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.20 per game since the start of last season.

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