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Jake Browning

Jake Browning TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Jake Browning TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+109/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +109.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Jake Browning.
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bengals are underdogs this week, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 65.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 5th-most pass-focused offense in football near the goal line (60.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.51 seconds per snap.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a measly 68.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-best rate in football.
  • Since the start of last season, the tough Vikings defense has allowed a meager 1.32 passing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-best rate in the league.

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