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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-198/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -198.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's ground game near the end zone in this week's game (52.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.0% in games he has played).
  • Jahmyr Gibbs's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the league leaders: 97th percentile for running backs.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs's 93.7% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a material improvement in his pass-catching skills over last year's 82.3% figure.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 81st percentile among RBs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a remarkable 0.12 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Lions.
  • At the moment, the most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Detroit Lions.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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