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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-184/+170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -194 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -184.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to be much less involved in his team's running game near the end zone in this game (49.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (64.1% in games he has played).

Jahmyr Gibbs's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 18.2.

Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 82.3% to 93.3%.

Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 80th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an excellent 0.14 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 57.1% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 47.1% red zone run rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the worst in the league this year.

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