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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-150/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The 5th-most plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

While Jahmyr Gibbs has been responsible for 71.4% of his team's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Detroit's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 43.4%.

Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 82.3% to 95.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Lions offensive gameplan to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator John Morton now calling the plays.

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a heavy 10-point favorite in this game.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

While Jahmyr Gibbs has been responsible for 13.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Detroit's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 18.5%.

More Jahmyr Gibbs Player Props

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