Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-194/+158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the goal line in this week's game (22.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.5% in games he has played).
Jahmyr Gibbs has compiled a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Jahmyr Gibbs's 28.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 18.2.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
With an exceptional ratio of 0.81 rushing TDs per game (98th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs ranks among the top rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL this year.
The Vikings pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.1%) vs. RBs this year (77.1%).