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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 18.2.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 82.4% to 86.3%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • With a 52.2% rate of running the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league in this regard has been the Lions.
  • Among all RBs, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 94th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 63.2% of the workload in his team's running game near the end zone.
  • When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for 0.87 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).

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