Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 26.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 18.2.
Jahmyr Gibbs's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 82.4% to 86.3%.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
With a 52.2% rate of running the ball in the red zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league in this regard has been the Lions.
Among all RBs, Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 94th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 63.2% of the workload in his team's running game near the end zone.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for 0.87 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).