Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2025

Updated Dec 15, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-168/+148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 61.8% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 5th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 53.9% red zone run rate.
Jahmyr Gibbs has received 64.1% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Detroit offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
With an outstanding ratio of 0.93 TDs on the ground per game (99th percentile), Jahmyr Gibbs places among the top rushing TD-scorers in football this year.
This year, the fierce Rams defense has yielded a puny 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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