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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (+102/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Lions last year (a staggering 59.6 per game on average).

The Detroit Lions have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

In this week's game, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the projection model to find himself in the 82nd percentile among RBs with 12.4 carries.

Jahmyr Gibbs has received 52.1% of his team's rushing play calls last year, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Jahmyr Gibbs has grinded out 87.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (97th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Detroit Lions to run on 41.0% of their downs: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Packers defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games last year, conceding just 4.07 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

The Green Bay Packers defensive ends rank as the 8th-best DE corps in the league last year in regard to run defense.

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