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Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -140.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by the model to slot into the 97th percentile among RBs with 5.1 targets.Jahmyr Gibbs's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 18.2.Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the leading running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 82.3% to 93.3%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 57.1% of their plays: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the worst in the league this year.When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's unit has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 8th-best in the NFL.
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