Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:42 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among running backs with 8.3 targets.
The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to be a more important option in his team's passing attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving skills have been refined this year, totaling 4.5 adjusted catches vs a measly 3.1 last year.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Vikings pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.1%) vs. RBs this year (77.1%).

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