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Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+118/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 58.4% of their plays: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
  • In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among running backs with 8.3 targets.
  • The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to be a more important option in his team's passing attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
  • The Vikings pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.1%) vs. RBs this year (77.1%).

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