Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 31, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually prompt increased passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
With a sizeable 52.8% Route Participation% (92nd percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs stands among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
In this game, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 96th percentile among running backs with 4.8 targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs grades out as one of the top running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 2.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 73.7% to 80.3%.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their typical approach.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 57.3% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 127.2 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: fewest in the league.
The 49ers linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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