Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2026 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Lions being an enormous -10.5-point underdog this week.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
In this week's contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to slot into the 99th percentile among RBs with 7.8 targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 18.1% Target Rate this year marks a noteworthy gain in his passing offense usage over last year's 12.4% figure.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jahmyr Gibbs's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, compiling a mere 6.84 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.89 rate last year.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a remarkable decline in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 10.6% rate.
This year, the poor Bears defense has conceded a monstrous 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in the league.

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