Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:42 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the model to run 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by the projections to place in the 100th percentile among running backs with 8.3 targets.
The model projects Jahmyr Gibbs to be a more important option in his team's passing attack this week (24.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
Jahmyr Gibbs has compiled a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 6.8 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a meaningful drop-off in his receiving talent over last year's 7.9 mark.
Jahmyr Gibbs's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, totaling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 10.56 mark last year.