Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-126/-101).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 17.6% Target Share this season shows a significant improvement in his pass attack usage over last season's 12.4% rate.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The Lions have been the 10th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.0% pass rate.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 7.1 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 7.9 figure.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a material decline in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 10.6% mark.

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