Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Lions since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
With a remarkable 57.8% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) since the start of last season, Jahmyr Gibbs has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
The projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to total 4.8 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.
The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Since the start of last season, the strong Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed a mere 79.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.
This year, the stout Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing running backs: a puny 3.9 YAC.
The Seahawks safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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