Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 6th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions since the start of last season (a massive 60.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) since the start of last season.
Jahmyr Gibbs has run a route on 58.7% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

A running game script is indicated by the Lions being a 6-point favorite in this game.
Jahmyr Gibbs's 65.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteable reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 73.7% mark.
Since the start of last season, the strong Buccaneers defense has yielded a measly 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 9th-best in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.

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