Jahmyr Gibbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The Lions have been the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.0% run rate.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to run 67.1 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to garner 17.5 carries in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Among all RBs, Jahmyr Gibbs ranks in the 88th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 58.3% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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