Jahmyr Gibbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jahmyr Gibbs

NFL · Player Props

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB · Detroit Lions

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahmyr Gibbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to earn 16.1 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
While Jahmyr Gibbs has earned 35.2% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more important option in Detroit's rushing attack this week at 62.5%.
The Detroit offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Las Vegas defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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