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Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Jahan Dotson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+880/-1650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1650.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.

The 4th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.4 per game) since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a staggering 72.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-largest rate in the NFL.

The Buccaneers defense has yielded the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 1.05 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

While Jahan Dotson has received 11.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a less important option in Philadelphia's offense near the goal line in this week's game at 5.6%.

The Eagles offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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