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Jahan Dotson

Jahan Dotson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Jahan Dotson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 70.3% of their plays: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 10th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Washington Commanders.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.1 per game) this year.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Jahan Dotson has been used much less in his offense's passing attack.

Jahan Dotson's 61.2% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a significant drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season's 64.4% rate.

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (56.6%) versus WRs this year (56.6%).

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