Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
With an impressive 87.1% Route Participation% (79th percentile) this year, Jahan Dotson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in football.
In this week's contest, Jahan Dotson is projected by the projections to position himself in the 77th percentile among wide receivers with 7.1 targets.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Jahan Dotson has notched quite a few less air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (78.0 per game).
Jahan Dotson's 7.0 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a significant decline in his receiving talent over last year's 9.4 figure.
Jahan Dotson comes in as one of the weakest WRs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Patriots pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, yielding 7.64 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.