Jahan Dotson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jahan Dotson

NFL · Player Props

Jahan Dotson

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jahan Dotson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+301/-536).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -536.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jahan Dotson has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which places him in the 77th percentile among WRs.
Jahan Dotson has accumulated a whopping 67.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Jahan Dotson ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.80 per game.
The Houston Texans safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 2nd-least touchdowns through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.44 per game this year.

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