Jacoby Brissett TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+132/-172).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jacoby Brissett's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.5% to 68.1%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (73.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 50.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 30.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Jacoby Brissett has been among the weakest TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 0.69 per game while checking in at the 16th percentile.