Jacoby Brissett Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jacoby Brissett

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Patriots, who are enormous -9-point underdogs.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Last year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed a monstrous 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-biggest rate in the league.
The Bengals safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Patriots.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.7 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots last year (just 56.2 per game on average).
In this week's contest, Jacoby Brissett is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.7.
The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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