Jacoby Brissett Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jacoby Brissett

NFL · Player Props

Jacoby Brissett

QB · New England Patriots

Carries

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 6, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Jacoby Brissett Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-169/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +133 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to run on 45.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
Jacoby Brissett has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this season (6.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (1.7%).

Favors Under

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 124.5 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's unit has been excellent this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.

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